DRAFT RECAPS - 7TH PICK

7TH PICK: RETURN OF THE MACK – FRADER:

Rounds 1-5:

Frader had the 7th pick in the draft and I’m curious how he felt when Zeke fell to him. On one hand, Zeke would have been the #2 pick if he wasn’t holding out. He led the NFL in rushing last year and has already eclipsed 4,000 rushing yards in just 3 seasons. The talent is undeniable. On the other hand… well, he’s holding out. I would have taken Zeke at 10 if he was there, so I can’t fault Frader for drafting him.

Kelce was selected in the 2nd round and it’s another one I agree with. He was TE1 last year and was top 10 in receiving yards (1,336). He has the best (fantasy) QB in football throwing to him and Tyreek Hill opens up a lot of room for him to operate. Owning Kelce is like owning a top15 WR and being able to plug him into your TE spot. While Gronk never really lived up to his 2nd round draft slots (injuries), I bet Kelce will provide good numbers for those who draft him.

Frader took Marlon Mack in the 3rd round and this is where we differ in opinion. Mack put up noteworthy numbers last season, but he has very little track record prior to Week 6 of 2018. He’s injury prone and just lost his QB to retirement which downgrades the entire Colts offense. He’s also rarely used in the passing game as evidenced by the fact he had all of 17 catches last year. I’d be comfortable with this pick in the 4th or 5th round, but the 3rd round is a little rich for my blood.

He made up for the slight reach on Mack by taking Sony Michel in the 5th round – this was a great pick. Michel was incredible during our Super Bowl run and has looked awesome in the preseason this year. The upside is an 18 touchdown season with 1,000+ yards on the ground: see LeGarrette Blount, 2016. Depending on Zeke I wouldn’t be surprised if Michel ends up as his best RB.

The only WR Frader took with his first 5 picks was Tyler Lockett. I like this pick, but hate it at the same time. I like it because Lockett is the #1 receiver for the Seahawks and had a breakout year in 2018. I hate it because the Seahawks don’t throw much, Lockett isn’t superlative in any area and he passed up a number of really good WRs in the 4th round to take him. Would you take Lockett over Edelman, TY Hilton, Stefon Diggs, Brandin Cooks, or Robert Woods? I wouldn’t.  

Rounds 6-10:

Frader built some nice FLEX depth with his next two picks by taking DJ Moore in the 6th and Terrence & Phillip Lindsay in the 7th. Both are second year players coming off good rookie years and both are exciting to watch. Moore was 2nd among rookies in 2018 with 788 yards, but his TD total was low (2). I imagine he beats that this year. Lindsay was one of the biggest waiver wire surprises of 2018 and ran for 1,037 yards as an undrafted rookie. The only rookie RB to rush for more yards? Saquon Barkley. He won’t be as efficient as he was in 2018 (5.4 YPC), but I bet he’ll outperform this draft slot. This could end up being one of the better mid-round picks.

The Mack took Matt Ryan as his QB in the 8th round and I’d say that was good value. He may have been better served taking one of the available WRs (Allen Robinson,  Jarvis Landry, Will Fuller, Robby Anderson), but he needed a QB. Ryan has thrown for 4,000+ yards every year for 8 straight years and has Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley as his WRs so… could be a lot worse.

He wrapped up the middle portion of the draft by taking Sterling Shepard and Darrell Henderson of the Rams. Sterling Shepard should be the Giants #1 WR for the first few weeks of the season, but I feel like he’s been inconsistent and disappointing overall in his career. He had 6 games with 10+ points in 2018, but had 10 games with fewer than 10 points and 6 games with 5 or fewer – those are week-killers. I definitely don’t like the Henderson pick – why would you take Todd Gurley’s backup, but not Zeke’s? Tony Pollard has been killing it in the preseason, but Henderson likely isn’t the #2….

Rounds 11-15:

Frader filled out his specialists in the last few rounds by taking the Saints D/ST and Mason Crosby. Crosby is a decent kicker to land in the last round – he was the #7 kicker in 2018 and has Aaron Rodgers as his QB. Fine with it. The Saints D pick was definitely odd though, especially because the Jags and Vikings were still available at the time. The Saints have talented players like Marshon Lattimore (O-H…..I-O) but I’m a little confused by this pick.

I’m not confused by the TB12 selection – I love it. Brady was slipping down draftboards like crazy in July when it looked like he had no weapons. Gronk retired, Julian was hurt, Gordon wasn’t back, etc etc etc. One month later and that narrative has turned on its heels: Edelman is back, Gordon is back, the TE group has good depth, Jakobi Meyers has been stellar. I like this pick a lot in the 13th round.

He took some fliers on WRs late in the draft as well: Dante Pettis in the 12th and James/Leonard “I’m From a Place Called None of Your Goddamned Business” Washington in the 14th (RIP Chappelle Show). Pettis was a popular sleeper early, but had a terrible preseason by all accounts. He’ll have to earn targets and I could see this being a wasted pick. I like the Washington pick a lot more though – someone has to get the targets left behind by Antonio Brown’s departure and it sure as shit won’t be Donte Moncreif. This could work out nicely.

Grade:

This has been the hardest draft to grade thus far. Part of me loves this team – he has the best TE in football, got good value on his QB and has a ton of RB depth. If Zeke plays his top 4 RBs are Zeke, Mack, Michel and Lindsay. That is an embarrassment of riches at the position and it’s clear it was a priority for Frader.

Part of me hates the team though. I’ll start with the inexcusable failure to draft Tony Pollard.

Taking Darrell Henderson over Pollard? I’m not savant, but wtf? Even worse – Tieg ended up with Pollard. Moving on. While I lauded the Kelce pick, there’s a reason I didn’t take him in the 2nd round. We all know what happened last time Frader took a TE in the 2nd round…. Lastly, I just can’t ignore the ugly situation at WR. Not one of his WRs had more than 66 catches in 2018 and not one of them had over 1,000 yards. There’s definite upside, but there’s a chance he gets 15 points combined from his 2 WRs in any given week.

Overall due to the concerns I give it a B-. I like it, but there are a LOT of ifs, buts, mays and coulds here.

Prediction:

I say Frader goes 6-7 and misses the playoffs to Tieg on a tie-breaker. In this scenario the Tony Pollard thing will really come back to bite him. He has a good team, but things could get messy if Zeke pulls a LeVeon, Kelce regresses to a normal statline and those WRs don’t take the jump that Frader’s hoping for.

*If Zeke reports back any time before Week 4 then I change this. 7-6 and makes playoffs.