GWBL 2025 SEASON RECAPS – 3rd PLACE (KEETZ)
Tale of the Tape:
Coming in 3rd place is Brown ^2, owned and managed by Jon Keetz. Keetz finished with 2,112 points for (MOST), 1,750 points against (LEAST) and a record of 11-3.
Synopsis:
It happens almost every year. For whatever reason, the #1 seed rarely ever wins the league. Over the past 5 years it has happened once (Kev in 2022, heyooo). If you expand that to 10 years (2016 through 2025), the #1 seed in the playoffs has won the league 3 times. If you extend that to the beginning of time (2011), it’s only 5 by my count. Ultimately the #1 seed only wins 30% of the time (5/15). That’s crazy low right? I’d expect 50% at least.
(Side note: it’s awesome that this league has been going on for 15 years. With largely the same core group. Love it.)
How do you explain that? The most straightforward answer is regression. I guess? If you blow your loa….. wait, this is a family show so I can’t use that metaphor. If you… empty your magazine over the first 14 weeks, you won’t have many rounds left for when it really counts. (Better…?) Honestly I think that’s the only explanation. Much of fantasy is about regression to the mean. Noone can stay on top forever. If you lead the pack for 14 weeks, that’s great. But if you have to expand the sample size another 3 weeks, you’re likely to come back down to earth a bit. Don’t ask me to calculate the numbers, that’s just how it is. That and luck. Pure unfiltered luck.
Which of course leads us back to Keetz. One of the most dominant regular seasons in league history. I would say it’s top 3 along with a) my 14-0 regular season romp (#nobigdeal) where I scored 2,037 points, and b) Kev’s title year when he went 10-4 and led the league with 2,275 points. ***That 2,275 is the highest point total scored by any team in league history, not adjusting for scoring inflation (couldn’t think of anything better). It’s not all bad for Kev!!
Keetz was a force this year. He finished with 11 wins and that’s only the 4th time someone has hit 11 wins in a season. The second most points ever scored by a team in league history. A ten game winning streak from Weeks 5-14. The weekly high score 4 separate times. Keetz won the weekly high score so many times that he comes up on my frequent flier list on Venmo. You know when you start typing to initiate a transaction and a list of common transferee/transferors shows up? Keetz’ mug is right there at the top for me. Right next to my brother, Lamone and my two sisters. Welcome to the family!
A season high 213.89 points, which is flat out ridiculous. That’s the 2nd highest total ever scored, less than a point behind DMO’s Week 10 last year. He had SEVEN games with 150+. Six games with 160 or more. A complete and total domination of the league during the regular season.
Unfortunately for Keetz, his good fortune ran out in the playoffs. After golden showering everyone with points against all season, he got hosed in Round 2. Whiting oil style. We’ll get more into that in Dyl’s recap.
Signature Win/Loss:
I’ll say the Week 12 win over Ken’s team: 213.89 to 129.18. It was a microcosm of Keetz’ season. Domination. Jahmyr Gibbs had 58 points. Maybe the best game we’ve ever seen. Amonra dropped a 30 burger. Davante Adams chipped in with 23 and Parker Washington hit 21 in a spot start (great move by Keetz). Breece Hall, McBride and Chase Brown each chipped in 16+. Somehow Josh Allen only had 12.6 points. If he has a normal game then Keetz blows by DMO’s high score. What a week.
Miscellaneous Draft Results & Personnel Moves:
Keetz nailed his first 4 picks with Gibbs, Amonra, Chase Brown and McBride. Gibbs is Rb4 and Amonra is WR3. Chase Brown comes in at RB8 while McBride is a clear cut TE1. I’m not even looking at McBride’s player page to confirm that, there is no way someone else beat him for the top spot.
Keetz’ favorite player Davante Adams was a nice pick in the 4th. I didn’t have any shares of him this year and regret it. The old man was dominant yet again: WR8 with 14 TDs on the season. Still a top 10 WR even though he’s missed 2 games. And is 33 years old.
The 5th round was fruitful as well: Breece Hall and RJ Harvey double dip. Breece was inconsistent but is RB17. Harvey had a slow first half but was a contributor down the stretch: 10 or more in every game since Week 10, RB19 overall.
The only pick that went sideways was Garrett Wilson in the 4th round. That’s not Keetz fault though, Wilson got hurt. He was having a great season before he went down (19 or more points in 4 of 6 games).
The Josh Allen trade was huge for Keetz. He snuck it in at the 11th hour and got some big performances down the stretch. He went for 46 just days after being acquired by Keetz. Unfortunately he shit the bed in the Round 2 playoff game, but moving on.
Keeper, I barely Know Her:
Brian Thomas Jr was an an 11th round keeper and we all thought he’d be a difference maker. Unfortunately he had a sophomore slump and isn’t even a top 40 WR. What happened to that 2024 WR class? Thomas, Marvin Harrison Jr, Ladd, etc etc. All those guys seemed to bust this year.
For next year he’s got a few expensive but worth the price options: Gibbs (1st round, absolutely worth it), McBride (3rd), Breece (5th), RJ Harvey (5th), Garrett Wilson (4th).
Final Thoughts:
Just a tough end to the year for Keetz. It stings when you put the best team together and don’t win the league. You either crap out, or play the wrong team at the wrong time. The latter in this case.
At least Keetz went home with some money. Over the season he took home $640. Nice.
One random takeaway is the “same team” conundrum I have internally every draft season. I usually try to avoid having players from the same team when drafting in fantasy. I worry they’ll take TDs away from each other and alternate big weeks. Keetz didn’t have that fear. He double dipped on the Lions players in Round 1 and lit that theory on fire. If the NFL offense is good enough, if the players are elite, it doesn’t matter
